Much like The Acclaimed, AEW Revolution has arrived! And Steve Cook is back with your gambling picks for the evening!

It’s been a minute since I did one of these! This is our first pro wrestling gambling column of 2022, largely because I forgot to do one for the Royal Rumble. These things happen, but now we’re back for AEW’s first PPV event of the year. Revolution looks like it should be a fun night of wrestling, but wouldn’t it be even more fun if you made some money in the process?

I think so! That’s why I’m taking a look at the BetOnline  odds & seeing where you can make some money. Every match except one has a line. Good times! Let’s start a betting revolution…

Buy-In Match:
House of Black (Malikai Black, Brody King & Buddy Matthews) vs. Death Triangle (Pac, Penta Oscuro, Erick Redbeard)

This was added during Friday’s Rampage show, and I’m not really sure why. Does the Buy-In really need three matches? I would have saved this for Dynamite, as that show will probably be light on the wrestling like most post-PPV shows are. Maybe Redbeard’s not allowed to leave the state of Florida, I don’t know.

If a line gets added to this prior to the show, expect the House of Black to be favored. Buddy Matthews losing his first AEW match would be enough to get a lot of online folks to riot.

Buy-In Match:
Hook (-1000) vs. QT Marshall (+500)

There’s no reason to even put this match on the board, as we all know that Hook is killing QT for his sins. Some have complained about this whole thing, and I have no idea why. The perfect way to use QT Marshall is have him work with a rookie and make them look like a million bucks, and I have no doubt he’ll do that here. As awesome as Hook is, it’s too early to book him in the “dream matches” that people think they want to see. Having him go through QT and people on that level first is the right way to go.

Buy-In Match:
Kris Statlander (-170) vs. “Legit” Leyla Hirsch (+130)

You want to talk about why I was given up for adoption? You crossed the line this time, bitch!
I’m as real as they get, while you hide behind an alien cartoon persona because your real personality ain’t shit. When you get in the ring with me I will beat your ass into reality.

— Legit Leyla Hirsch (@LegitLeyla) February 12, 2022

This feud’s been somewhat under the radar for awhile now, and really hasn’t done much for either wrestler. Perhaps actually having a singles match will help?

Hirsch is the heel, but Statlander’s interview where she said she understood why Hirsch’s parents put her up for adoption didn’t exactly get the face reaction people were hoping for. Leyla had beat Kris up a few times, so some dislike is understandable…but it felt like a little too much to many viewers. In Statlander’s defense, it’s not like aliens are known for having human feelings like compassion or understanding. It also didn’t help that nothing was done until the booking of this match three weeks later. The whole thing just seems awkward, you know?

It should be a decent wrestling match, but it also has less heat behind it than anything on the show. I guess Kris Statlander wins since she’s got slightly more buzz behind her right now, but I remember when she had a lot more.

Face of the Revolution Ladder Match:
Keith Lee (+100) vs. Orange Cassidy (+800) vs. Powerhouse Hobbs (+1000) vs. Ricky Starks (+650) vs. Wardlow (+100) vs. Christian Cage (+1000)

.@RealWardlow is more than ready to dominate @AEW’s Face of the Revolution Ladder Match 😤

(via B/R AMA)

Watch #AEWRevolution March 6 at 8pm ET streaming live in the B/R app. Tap in to purchase now: https://t.co/TCk3303tHC pic.twitter.com/J5qxIcf6Cl

— B/R Wrestling (@BRWrestling) March 3, 2022

Winner gets a TNT Championship match against either Sammy Guevara or Scorpio Sky, who’s getting a shot this Wednesday. It’ll probably be Sammy, so I wouldn’t read too much into that part of the situation. Some interesting names here, but the most interesting name is that of Wardlow, who seems to be on the verge of telling MJF & Shawn Spears where to go. Having him win here would be a big move in that direction, and that’s what I think will happen.

If you’re looking for an underdog to make some money on, which is what we try to do here…Ricky Starks winning is always a good thing in my book.

Six-Man Tornado Tag Team Match:
Andrade El Idolo, Isiah Kassidy & Matt Hardy (+250) vs. Darby Allin, Sammy Guevara & Sting (-400)

According to my mentions and Dave Meltzer this is the most anticipated match on the Pay Per View!

Am I surprised? Absolutely not.

Bring y’all A game fellas, cause we bringing ours 💯#AEWRevolution https://t.co/n94o0lQ4nC

— Private Party (@IsiahKassidy) March 2, 2022

Sammy, Darby & Andrade put on quite the show on Friday night, resulting in Sammy retaining the TNT Championship. Which is fine, but it seems like there may be some dissension in the ranks, as Darby did not adhere to the Code of Honor after the match. Will Darby be able to get over his defeat by Sunday night?

There also seems to be dissension in the AHFO ranks, as Matt Hardy’s behavior has become more & more erratic lately. It was bound to happen at some point. Kassidy has been very impressive taking beatings lately, so expect some more of that. I’m expecting a win for Darby, Sammy & Sting, mostly due to Sting being more able to hold a team together than pretty much anybody else in AEW. You just don’t want to disappoint Sting.

TBS Championship Match:
Jade Cargill (c) (-1500) vs. Tay Conti (+600)

When did you become so “hip” Tay. Something clearly got INTO you 😎😉😉😉😘. And nah I don’t need no pop. They know a star when I show up. 💅🏾 https://t.co/HOxU4qIhDr

— Jade Cargill (@Jade_Cargill) March 2, 2022

On one hand, Jade Cargill is in a weird spot. She has a championship belt without really being ready for it on the wrestling side of things. Jade’s had a couple of good matches, but you can tell she’s quite green (her hair tells you this too, I know) and has a long way to go before becoming the type of wrestler that can have a good match with anybody. On the other hand, she has a star presence the likes of which very few people in AEW else have, and it’d be insane to have somebody beat her right now. Jade might be green, but green is also another term for money.

So, while Tay Conti is a very improved wrestler and would be a fine TBS Champion any other time, it’s hard for me to tell you she’s going to beat Jade Cargill. She isn’t.

AEW World Tag Team Championship Match:
Jurassic Express (c) (-115) vs. reDRagon (+175) vs. The Young Bucks (+225)

pic.twitter.com/wPhZnwLATj

— Young Bucks Bio (@bio_bucks) March 3, 2022

The Jurassic Express seem like the smart pick here, as a win over two of the top tag teams of the past decade on PPV would bump Jungle Boy up yet another notch. Both reDRagon & the Bucks losing, presumably due to some type of miscommunication, is the type of drama that the Bucks are all about and could make multiple episodes of BTE about. If I was to pick one of the underdogs I would go with the Bucks because you can’t really count them out of winning anything ever, but it seems like Jungle Boy’s time.

And Luchasaurus too.

Jon Moxley (-115) vs. Bryan Danielson (-125)

You have to watch out sometimes when you tease wrestling fans. When I heard Bryan Danielson pitch Jon Moxley the idea of them joining forces to teach the next generation, I immediately assumed it wouldn’t happen. Moxley’s character is more about creating violence than grooming the future, and Danielson as he currently operates can’t be trusted as a partner in such a venture. So I didn’t think much about it, even though Danielson did do a heck of a sales job. He did such a good job that now many AEW fans actually want to see this thing happen, and will be disappointed if it doesn’t.

Unless, of course, Danielson finds a different partner. Which I think happens, and leads to Bryan Danielson getting the win here.

Chris Jericho (+250) vs. Eddie Kingston (-400)

Eddie Kingston hasn’t won the big one in AEW yet. He’s lost every match he’s challenged for a championship in. He’s lost every PPV match he’s had. Looking at Eddie’s AEW win-loss record, the most accomplished wrestler Eddie holds a victory over is Lance Archer, who has his own difficulties in big matches. If pro wrestling didn’t have pre-determined outcomes, there’s no way in hell Eddie Kingston would be the favorite in this match.

He is favored, largely because this seems like the type of match Chris Jericho loses. Jericho is at the stage of his career where it’s more productive to have him lose matches like this one. A win over Eddie Kingston does nothing to affect Jericho’s status one way or another. Looking at Eddie’s previous PPV matches, it always made more sense for his opponent to win. CM Punk’s first loss was being reserved for MJF. The rest were championship matches where other people made more sense to take the strap from the champion. This one, Eddie should win.

That all being said, picking Chris Jericho could make more sense from a financial perspective. AEW seems to have already decided that wins & losses don’t matter with Kingston, and Jericho emerging victorious somehow would be an interesting way to continue this story. I might throw a few bucks on it.

AEW Women’s World Championship Match
Dr. Britt Baker D.M.D. (c) (+225) vs. Thunder Rosa (-350)

.@ThunderRosa22 just pinned the #AEW Women's Champ Dr. @realbrittbaker 😱 in their tag team match tonight! Could this possibly be a reflection of what's to come on Sunday at the #AEWRevolution LIVE PPV? Don't miss another minute of #AEWDynamite on TBS right now! pic.twitter.com/JQccVI7J2I

— All Elite Wrestling (@AEW) March 3, 2022

This one seemed pretty open and shut to me earlier this week, even as an unapologetic fan of the Good Doctor. As much as I love Dr. Baker and everything she’s done to represent AEW in the best light possible, it feels like Thunder Rosa’s time. After all, who else is there for Britt to beat after she beats Rosa? Even I would have to admit that Thunder Rosa would be a deserving champion and would have a good number of challengers ready to face.

Then Thunder Rosa pinned Britt Baker on Dynamite, and my thoughts & opinions on this match turned upside down. We all know how it goes. If you’re standing tall on the go-home show, you’re losing at the PPV. It’s a law of averages kind of thing, along with basic psychology. One would have expected Britt & the criminally underrated Jamie Hayter to win the match, or for Thunder to pin Jamie while Britt looked on like “naw you ain’t doing that to me!” Nah, we just had the challenger pin the champion heading into the PPV. Which doesn’t bode well for the challenger. Neither do reports that Rosa was injured during this match, so expect the odds to get more even leading into the show.

If we follow Wrestling Logic 101, Dr. Britt Baker D.M.D. sure seems like the smart bet here. (This is where Greg tells us that Tony Khan has no idea what Wrestling Logic is, so there’s no reason to worry about that. I would never say such a thing since I’m a nice guy.)

Dog Collar Match
CM Punk (-270) vs. MJF (+180)

Given that MJF won the first encounter between these two, one would expect Punk to win here to even the score, right? Not so fast, my friend. I’ve seen CM Punk have a couple of dog collar matches in my day. Granted, they took place many years ago, back in the early days of Ring of Honor, but they serve as examples for what I expect to follow.

Punk’s first dog collar match in ROH was with Raven as part of a violent feud pitting a brash young man against a wily veteran. Punk & Raven bled buckets in the feud that established CM Punk as one of ROH’s brightest stars. The dog collar match was Raven & Punk’s second singles match in ROH, and observers thought that Raven would even things up after Punk won their first match. That didn’t happen.

Punk’s second dog collar match in ROH was with Jimmy Rave as part of a violent feud pitting a brash young man against…well, Punk wasn’t as wily a veteran as Raven, but he was definitely the more established name in comparison to Jimmy Rave. Rave established himself as one of ROH’s top heels through his battles with Punk. Rave had won their first match in Chicago, and people thought that Punk would even things up in their second match with help from the dog collar. That didn’t happen.

See the trend? Veteran loses the first match, thinks they’ll get the win in the re-match by bringing out the dog collar, gets burned. Punk bleeding buckets this week on Dynamite makes me wonder for a minute, but I still think MJF is a decent bet if you’re looking for an underdog to make some coin on.

AEW World Championship Match
“Hangman” Adam Page (c) (-600) vs. Adam Cole (+350)

The Hangman title reign so far has delivered some pretty amazing matches. His matches with Bryan Danielson tore the roof off, and his hardcore battle with Lance Archer gave him that bloodbath every AEW Champion needs to be successful. If there’s a complaint one could have, it’s that he’s not having enough matches on television and isn’t dominating the airwaves like World Champions people of my age were used to seeing back in the day. Personally, I think Page’s Twitter takedown of Glenn Jacobs more than cancels out any gripe one could have with his personality on television.

Adam Cole has been something of a polarizing figure since entering AEW. Live crowds react well to Cole, playing along with his entrance gimmick and popping for his big moves. People watching from home have been more critical of the Bay Bay. Even those that were fans during his time in NXT & prior don’t seem to have been impressed by Cole’s AEW work thus far. They’re disappointed in his physique, his size, his personality, pretty much everything that they thought he could overcome on the WWE main roster. Now that he’s in AEW, all these things are problematic. It’s not like anything’s changed, which is my main beef with the Adam Cole Experience in AEW. The only thing he’s missing is Roderick Strong.

We’ve got two Adams. One is the chosen one of AEW, the man who inherited the torch from Kenny Omega. The other was the face of WWE NXT for most of its run against AEW Dynamite. It seems to me that the smart thing to do would involve having the guy you’ve built up since day one of your company get the win over the guy that represented your competition for so long. At least the first time they meet. We can talk about what happens down the road. It seems too soon to take the title off of Hangman Page to me.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy AEW Revolution! Or not. I get paid the same either way.